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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior WriterOct 30, 2023, 05:42 PM ET
- College football press reporter
- Signed up with ESPN.com in 2007
- Graduate of Indiana University
GRAPEVINE, Texas– Before the College Football Playoff choice committee members even started their very first conference here on Monday at the Gaylord Texan Resort, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian lobbed the very first public pitch of the season in their instructions.
“I ‘d argue we have the very best win in the nation today,” Sarkisian informed press reporters on Monday at his weekly press conference. “The reality that we enter into Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and beat a group that was 52-1 in the previous 53 video games.
“I hear a lot about how hard the SEC is, however I have not seen any of those groups enter into Alabama and win either, so I feel respectable about our group.”
He’s. The Longhorns have the very best nonconference win in the country. Are they the finest one-loss group? Or will that honor go to Oregon when the committee launches its very first of 6 rankings Tuesday night?
Absolutely nothing that has actually unfolded through the very first 9 weeks of the season will make this any simpler for the 13-member group entrusted with identifying which of the 5 staying unbeaten Power 5 groups will be on the bubble today: Georgia Michigan Ohio State Florida State or Washington
Contributing to the drama is the continuous examination into Michigan, which is dealing with claims of unfaithful by searching future challengers personally at video games. It’s an extraordinary circumstance for the committee members to think about– or attempt to disregard.
There are 7 sitting athletic directors on the committee, consisting of Michigan’s Warde Manuel, who is here and will recuse himself throughout ballot and conversations about his group. The CFP on Monday decreased to respond to any particular concerns about what Manuel can discuss as it associates with the examination or how the committee will be advised to manage it. CFP executive director Bill Hancock described his initial declaration: “The response continues to be that the committee thinks about groups that are qualified to take part in a championship game.”
Choice committee members are turned every 3 years, so what may have been essential to in 2015’s group might alter this season with 3 brand-new members in previous Nevada coach Chris Ault, Miami (Ohio) athletic director David Sayler and Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, who changed Jennifer Cohen when she was worked with as USC’s advertisement.
Harlan is the Pac-12’s agent in the group, working together with the ACC’s Boo Corrigan (NC State), the Big Ten’s Manuel, the SEC’s Mitch Barnhart (Kentucky) and the Big 12’s Gene Taylor (Kansas State). Navy athletic director Chet Gladchuk is entering his 2nd year with the committee.
Other committee members consist of previous Wake Forest, Ohio and Baylor coach Jim Grobe, previous Nebraska All-America offending lineman and NFL All-Pro Will Shields, previous Notre Dame linebacker Rod West and Hall of Fame coach Joe Taylor, whose profession covered stops at Florida A&M, Hampton, Virginia Union and Howard. There is one lady in the group, previous USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.
Committee members are directed through composed procedure to think about strength of schedule, head-to-head outcomes and results versus typical challengers. Championship game are the last piece of the puzzle, however the committee ranks 25 groups every week based just on what they’ve done to date.
These are the greatest concerns dealing with the group, and their responses when the rankings are launched will be the very first hints to the playoff chain of command in the last season of a four-team field:
Who’s No. 1?
Ohio State, Florida State and Washington have the 3 finest résumés, according to ESPN’s strength of record metric. Georgia’s strength of schedule up until now ranks 100th, while Michigan’s ranks 111th.
Ohio State might have the very best résumé in the nation if both Penn State and Notre Dame are top-15 CFP groups. The committee likewise would value the Buckeyes’ current roadway win versus a decent Wisconsin group. While its offense hasn’t been as constant or explosive as others, Ohio State’s defense hasn’t enabled more than 17 points in a video game all season.
Georgia has actually won back-to-back nationwide titles and is unbeaten, however the Bulldogs may not have any wins versus CFP-ranked challengers, and the committee isn’t expected to let previous seasons affect its ballot. Georgia has actually played well versus its most difficult competitors, however, and it showed Saturday versus Florida that it can be a top-four group even without hurt tight end Brock BowersHow the committee examines Florida and Kentuckywhich are both three-loss groups, will factor into where the Bulldogs are put. Those are likewise the only 2 FBS challengers Georgia has actually beat that have a winning record.
Florida State’s finest win protests LSU in Orlando, and it defeats anything Georgia and Michigan have actually done yet, however the Noles’ overtime success versus Clemson no longer looks as outstanding due to the fact that the Tigers are a four-loss group. Washington perhaps has the very best total win in the nation– versus Oregon– however the Huskies have actually won unconvincingly in each of the previous 2 weeks.
Michigan has actually appeared like the most total group in the nation and is No. 1 in ESPN’s video game control metric (though Ohio State is No. 2, and Washington is No. 3). As great as the Wolverines have actually appeared, their finest win protests Rutgers (6-2).
Mentioning Michigan …
How will the accusations versus Michigan affect its ranking, if at all?
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It’s extremely likely the examination will not affect Michigan at all, a minimum of not if the choice committee members follow the composed procedure committee chair Corrigan advises them of at the start of each conference. If the NCAA or the Big Ten levies a postseason restriction, the Wolverines are out, however the examination procedure at the NCAA level usually moves at a glacial rate.
ESPN connected to previous committee members to comprehend how the subject likely will be dealt with in the space.
“Because these things take so long, I believe the committee attempts to do things based upon their requirements, based upon the letter of the law, and I truly do not think this would enter conversations throughout our conferences,” one previous committee member stated, “and if it did, it would be closed down actually rapidly due to the fact that it does not choose our requirements. If for some factor [the investigation] was fast-tracked, and they left wins throughout the season, clearly that’s a various story.”
That does not suggest, however, that committee members will not be speaking about the accusations versus Michigan outside the space.
There will likely be some “personal disgust and discussions far from the table about how this is a start the gut to sportsmanship and, specifically amongst coaches, type of sacrilegious,” the very same previous committee member stated.
“I believe this is completely versus whatever that is reasonable and ethical about college football,” another previous committee member stated.
Another stated “it’s practically even worse” if a committee member punishes Michigan since she or he believes the school may have done something.
“That’s not a metric, ideal?” the individual stated. “That might wind up actually negatively impacting the other rankings, which’s wrong either.”
“I would state at this phase the committee must rank them as they consider suitable,” the very same committee member stated. “Keep an eye on their eligibility. I believe they ‘d have to rank the group based on what they see. There’s plenty to concern beyond the supposed unfaithful. They’re doing whatever they’re expected to versus the schedule they’re playing, however there’s not a lot of meat on the bone as far as their challengers. That might be more of a conversation point.”
Who is the highest-ranked one-loss group?
Sarkisian wants to believe it’s Texas– and it might be– however Oregon has a strong case and goes into the committee’s very first discussion after a persuading win at Utahwhere the Utes had actually won 18 straight home video games. Harlan, the Utes’ athletic director, can definitely weigh in on what he saw from the Ducks firsthand, similar to Kentucky’s Barnes will definitely have some viewpoints on what he saw about Georgia.
The Ducks have 3 wins versus Power 5 groups.500 or much better (Colorado Washington State and Utah) and one triumph versus what need to be a ranked CFP group in Utah. 4 roadway wins is an information the committee will observe– however so is a win versus an FCS school, Portland State
The Longhorns’ double-digit roadway triumph at Alabama will be a centerpiece of the committee’s conversations about Texas, and their only loss was to their competing Oklahomaby 4 points. Even without hurt beginning quarterback Quinn Ewersthe Longhorns made a persuading home win on Saturday versus BYUFollowing Kansasupset of Oklahoma on Saturday, it’s possible the choice committee has the Jayhawks in their leading 25. That would offer Texas a 2nd win versus a ranked challenger, together with the triumph versus the Crimson Tide. With the exceptions of Baylor and Houstonall the Longhorns’ wins have actually come versus FBS challengers at.500 or much better.
While Alabama is definitely among the country’s finest one-loss groups, the Longhorns’ head-to-head real roadway win versus the Tide will keep Alabama from leapfrogging Texas– in the meantime.
Will the committee honor Oklahoma’s head-to-head win versus Texas?
It would be unexpected if the committee did, although the groups have similar 7-1 records, thinking about the Sooners lost to Kansas and didn’t play well in their win versus UCFOklahoma beat Texas 34-30 on Oct. 7, however the choice committee has actually triggered debate before by marking down a head-to-head outcome.
In 2021, the group ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of the Spartans’ 37-33 October win over their in-state competitor. At the time, committee chair Gary Barta stated the group considered Michigan the “more total group” and much better statistically “in almost every classification.”
With OU and Texas, there aren’t lots of glaring analytical distinctions, though any can be pulled as an example in either group’s favor. The crucial aspects might be Oklahoma’s two-point win versus a 3-5 UCF group and the Sooners’ absence of a nonconference win versus a Power 5 challenger.
Who’s on the bubble at No. 5?
With 5 unbeaten Power 5 groups staying, someone is going to get snubbed. The most likely prospects for this suspicious difference are Washington, Michigan and Georgia.
What’s special about this very first ranking is Michigan might genuinely be No. 1 or No. 5 in such a subjective system. Michigan is No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, while Georgia is No. 7 and Washington is No. 3. (Strength of record steps how challenging it is for a typical top-25 challenger to accomplish the exact same record versus the exact same challengers.)
The Huskies’ issue is how they’ve played each of the previous 2 weeks, especially in an unimpressive 15-7 win versus Arizona Statewhich is now 2-6. Washington’s high-powered offense was held without a goal versus the Sun Devils. On Saturday in a narrow triumph versus StanfordWashington had 2 red zone turnovers. The Huskies’ win versus Oregon, however, is looking much better than ever after the Ducks’ accomplishment at Utah.
Where are the competitors’ challengers ranked?
This is where strength of schedule begins to be figured out– a minimum of in the committee members’ eyes. Among the most repetitive reasons for where a group is ranked has actually been the number of CFP top-25 challengers it has actually beat. Well, the committee is the one that sets that bar.
How excellent is the Big 12 beyond Texas and Oklahoma? Will the Sooners have beat any ranked challengers besides Texas? Will Texas get a shot Saturday at another top-25 group in Kansas State
Just how much has actually the ACC fallen with Clemson, North Carolina and Miami having numerous losses? That response might assist figure out just how much pressure is on Florida State to end up as an unbeaten ACC champ.
And where is LSU ranked? Does Georgia have any top-25 wins?
Does any two-loss group have a possibility?
No two-loss group has actually made it in the nine-year history of the CFP, however that does not suggest it can’t take place.
While Notre Dame might be the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss group, it’s exceptionally hard for the Fighting Irish to conquer that without a championship game win versus a ranked challenger. It will be difficult for the committee to neglect their loss to Louisville.
LSU remains in a comparable position to that of last season, when it had a chance to end up as a two-loss SEC champ and press the committee to see how seriously it would think about the Tigers. Rather, the Tigers ended up as a three-loss runner-up to Georgia, and it was a moot point. The very same might occur once again on Saturday if LSU loses at Alabama.
Another possibility is two-loss Oregon Statewhich will end the season with back-to-back video games versus Washington and Oregon.
Watch on where these two-loss groups are ranked Tuesday.
The most affordable a group has actually ever been ranked in the preliminary CFP ranking and still made the playoff was No. 16 Ohio State in 2014, however the Buckeyes just had one loss and went on to win the nationwide title that year.
What the very first ranking truly indicates
Over the very first 9 years of the four-team format, 21 of the 36 groups (58%) that remained in the leading 4 in the preliminary rankings wound up in the playoff. That leaves space for groups outside Tuesday’s leading 4 to land an area in the semifinals.
The lowest-ranked groups in the preliminary rankings to make it to the last 4 are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes began at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners began at No. 15. Those are the only groups that were outside the leading 10 of the very first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.
On the other end of the scale, 7 of the 9 No. 1 groups in the very first CFP rankings and 15 of the 18 groups at first ranked in the leading 2 have actually reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014, No. 2 LSU in 2015 and No. 1 Tennessee in 2015.
Just when, in 2020, did all of the leading 4 groups in the preliminary rankings make it to the playoff.
ESPN’s Chris Low takes a year-by-year take a look at the leading 4 in the very first rankings, where those groups landed in the last rankings and the crucial elements that formed each year’s race.
2022
No. 1 in very first ranking: Tennessee (6th in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Ohio State (4th in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Georgia (initially in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Clemson (seventh in last ranking)
Other playoff groups: No. 2 Michigan (5th in very first ranking), No. 3 TCU (seventh in very first ranking)
No group in the 2022 playoff chase suffered a more squashing defeat than Tennessee, which was shredded 63-38 by unranked South Carolina in the next-to-last week of the routine season. The Vols were No. 5 heading into that Nov. 19 video game, and their only loss was to No. 1 Georgia on the roadway. With Ohio State losing in your home to Michigan in the last regular-season video game, and TCU falling in the Big 12 national championship to Kansas State the next week, the door would have been open for the Vols to make the playoff as a one-loss group. Things fell ideal for the Buckeyes to move into the last playoff area when USC blew its possibility by losing to Utah (for the 2nd time that season) in the Pac-12 national championship. The Trojans were No. 4 in the CFP rankings heading into their rematch with the Utes, however USC was beaten comfortably, 47-24.
2021
No. 1 in very first ranking: Georgia (3rd in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Alabama (initially in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Michigan State (10th in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Oregon (14th in last ranking)
Other playoff groups: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in very first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)
Michigan State appeared to be in excellent shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to protect the No. 3 area in the very first rankings. That didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State 2 weeks after that. And the Wolverines just got steam after their close loss in East Lansing. They rattled 5 straight success, consisting of a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their very first in the series in 10 years) and made their very first playoff look. Cincinnati went unbeaten throughout the routine season to end up being the very first Group of 5 group to make the playoff, benefiting from Oregon losing two times to Utah in the last 3 weeks.
2020
No. 1 in very first ranking: Alabama (initially in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Notre Dame (4th in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Clemson (2nd in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Ohio State (3rd in last ranking)
The choice committee’s leading 4 stayed undamaged in the last rankings, although Texas A&M lost simply one video game (to Alabama) while playing an all-SEC schedule throughout the reduced COVID-19 season and believed it should have the No. 4 area over a Notre Dame group that lost by 24 indicate Clemson in the ACC national championship.
2019
No. 1 in very first ranking: Ohio State (2nd in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: LSU (initially in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Alabama (13th in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Penn State (10th in last ranking)
Other playoff groups: No. 3 Clemson (5th in very first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)
Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts assisted Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next 5 video games, consisting of a 30-23 overtime win versus Baylor in the Big 12 national championship, to reach the No. 4 area. Georgia had actually been No. 4 the previous 4 weeks however slipped to No. 5 in the last rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC national championship.
2018
No. 1 in very first ranking: Alabama (initially in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Clemson (2nd in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: LSU (11th in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Notre Dame (3rd in last ranking)
Other playoff group: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in very first ranking)
Comparable to the 2019 season, Hurts played a huge function in how the last 2018 playoff rankings cleaned, just this time he was betting Alabama. Injures came off the bench for a hurt Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a goal and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the 4th quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC national championship. That loss cost the Dawgs an area in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the last rankings. It likewise cleared the method for the Sooners to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 national championship for their seventh straight win.
2017
No. 1 in very first ranking: Georgia (3rd in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Alabama (4th in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Clemson (initially in last ranking)
Other playoff group: No. 2 Oklahoma (5th in very first ranking)
The group that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that the majority of formed the field was AuburnIn a period of 3 weeks to end the routine season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to transfer to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings regardless of having 2 losses. In a rematch with Georgia in the SEC champion video game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, paving the method for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the leading 4 and ultimately play for the nationwide champion. Alabama had actually been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had actually won the SEC title video game, the Tigers would have been the just two-loss group ever to make the playoff field.
2016
No. 1 in very first ranking: Alabama (initially in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Clemson (2nd in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Michigan (6th in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make last ranking)
Other playoff groups: No. 3 Ohio State (6th in very first ranking), No. 4 Washington (5th)
Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions completed one area out of the playoff, at No. 5 in the last rankings. That’s regardless of beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last 9 video games, consisting of a 38-31 choice over Wisconsin in the Big Ten national championship. Ohio State was the Big Ten group that made the playoff, however, as the Buckeyes had simply one loss as compared to the Nittany Lions’ 2 losses. Ultimate nationwide champ Clemson made it through a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to end up No. 2 in the last rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the video game however was No. 23 in the committee’s last rankings.
2015
No. 1 in very first ranking: Clemson (initially in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: LSU (20th in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Alabama (2nd in last ranking)
Other playoff groups: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in very first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)
Among the most significant kicks throughout the College Football Playoff period was thanks to Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard basket as time ended raised Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 going into the Nov. 21 video game. The Spartans won their next 2, consisting of a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten national championship, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State tilt was basically a play-in, as the Hawkeyes was available in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its huge go up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the roadway Nov. 14 then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 2 weeks later on to win the Big 12 national championship.
2014
No. 1 in very first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in last ranking)
No. 2 in very first ranking: Florida State (3rd in last ranking)
No. 3 in very first ranking: Auburn (19th in last ranking)
No. 4 in very first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in last ranking)
Other playoff groups: No. 1 Alabama (6th in very first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (5th), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)
3 SEC groups in the preliminary playoff rankings? The remainder of the college football world was fuming, however none of the 3 wound up in the last 4. Ultimate nationwide champ Ohio State was the resurgence story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 in your home by 2 goals to a Virginia Tech group that dropped 6 video games. Ohio State likewise lost a set of quarterbacks– Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett– to injury however clawed back to protect the No. 4 area in the last rankings, going up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten national championship. No one was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a national championship, and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the routine season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State group 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 champion, however it wasn’t enough to impress the committeeas TCU in some way was up to No. 6 in the last rankings.
